March 29, 2023

A Brief Thought on the Left and the Right

Why do the left and the right disagree about capitalism? Hint: It has to do with freedom.

There are many reasons why those on the left and the right disagree in their assessments of capitalism. But a big part of that disagreement can be seen in this simple chart. It concerns differing assessments of work and consumption under capitalism.


              Left         Right

Life as a worker     Deeply unfree Incidental, not very unfree

Life as a consumer    Incidental, not very free Deeply Free


In each case, they differ in their assessments of freedom. The left sees workplaces as sites of tyranny. Workers spend most of their lives working for an undemocratic firm and thus have little control over their lives. This unfreedom is not balanced out in their life as a consumer, because the freedom to choose between brands is not inherently meaningful and in many cases there are few choices. Many consumers also lack the resources to have wide consumption options.


The right sees life as a capitalist consumer as a source of deep freedom to choose how one wants to live via one’s consumption of products both necessary and just for fun. Consumers are also empowered—the market supplies what we want to buy and firms that fail to do so die out. Conversely, this freedom is not meaningfully weakened when at work. Just as the left does not see capitalism’s consumerist upside, the right does not see its workplace downside. 


These are hardly the only reasons the left and the right disagree on capitalism (and not every person will fit in these boxes). But it is important to remember that a key part of the disagreement has to do with freedom. You will see these disagreements embodied in essays on the left (at, say Jacobin) and the right (at, say National Review) and in the books of major thinkers on the left, like Noam Chomsky, and the right, like Milton Friedman. 


I think the arguments, evidence, and framing are much more persuasive on the left. But one of the values of political theory is that, as a theorist, one can work through a body of thought and pinpoint where, how, and why two people, or two political perspectives, disagree.


Doing so won’t eliminate disagreement (nor should it) but it might create a little more clarity and respect. 

March 22, 2023

Some Reflections on Ludwig Von Mises

As part of my effort to read, engage with, and critique important thinkers on the right I recently read a collection of writings by Ludwig Von Mises, a key Austrian economist and foundational thinker in the development and revival of free market thinking in the 20th century. His essays cover a lot of ground. Here are some thoughts, organized around a few key themes.

Power

His basic story, laid out on pages 5-6, is that in capitalism the consumer is sovereign. This is because to be successful businessmen must constantly cater to the desires of the consumer. Thus we can say that the consumer in effect runs the economy. Von Mises sums this up by saying that “under capitalism there is one way to wealth: to serve the consumers better and cheaper than other people do.”


As far as social and political theory go, this is fascinating. Compare Von Mises to Vivek Chibber’s recent book, Confronting Capitalism, for a look at how differently the left and the right frame and understand capitalism. (I will say more on this in the next post).


In summation, on page 6, Von Mises argues that “within the shop and factory, the owner—or in corporations, the representative of shareholders, the president—is the boss. But this mastership is merely apparent and conditional. It is subject to the supremacy of the consumers. The consumer is king, is the real boss, and the manufacturer is done for if he does not outstrip his competitors in best serving consumers.”


My Response? Mises basically just sidesteps/concedes one of the main leftist criticisms of capitalism, namely that most people have to spend a majority of their waking life working under the control of someone else at a dictatorial workplace and also spend much of their “non-work” time commuting to and from work, showering/eating/getting ready for work, or just laying exhausted on the sofa afterwards recovering from work. In addition, many jobs are physically dangerous and/or soul-crushing. To ignore this and focus on the “freedom” and “power” of the consumer is hard to take seriously. I’m exhausted, tight on money, unhappy, but I’m free because I get to pick between Campbell’s and Progresso when I’m at the grocery store? Really, this is the capitalist conception of freedom?


As he says again on page 18, “economic power, in the market economy, is in the hands of the consumer.” But this consumer power is pretty overstated—companies spend billions to get people to buy things they don’t need or want (we see this in the massive plastic, clothing, packaging, and other waste produced under capitalism). Not to mention how he ignores the massive concentration of income and wealth among a tiny minority, the role they have on boards of directors, or as major shareholders, principle investors, connections to politicians, and so on. He also ignores inequality and poverty—about half of the people in America, for instance, have relatively little spare income and thus relatively little choice in what to consume. Rent, healthcare, groceries take up most people’s money.


Bernie Sanders describes how power is concentrated in straightforward language. It is in the hands of “Wall Street investors and corporate CEOS who determine whether jobs will stay in this country or go abroad, what kind of incomes working people will earn, and what the price of gas, prescription drugs, and food will be. And while these oligarchs exert enormous influence over our lives, ordinary people have virtually no power, or even the concept of power, in shaping the future of the country. They lack the institutions to exert influence, and they’re too busy just trying to survive.”


The Von Mises conception of power is so radically at odds with how those on the left see power that it is hard to see how to find any common ground. Books like Mills’ The Power Elite, Domhoff’s Who Rules America?, Miliband’s The State in Capitalist Society,  and Gautney’s The New Power Elite, demonstrate how the left frames the distribution of power, which I think is frankly much more compelling than what is offered by the right. Looking around the world in 2023, Von Mises’ claims of consumer sovereignty sound about as compelling as Pravda must have sounded in 1989.


History

Von Mises sees the 1940s and 1950s, much like Hayek and Friedman, as a period dominated by anti-capitalist ideas. Obviously I wasn’t alive then but I think they overstated the power of the left and the marginalization of the right. The 1950s American identity was in many respects defined in stark opposition to the USSR, i.e. a Christian individualist capitalism contrasted with an atheist collectivist communism.


The second chapter, titled “Planned Chaos,” echoes Hayek’s Road to Serfdom argument. Von Mises also makes the standard claims about the bad consequences of minimum wages, price controls, and other market interventions.  In sum, we get a huge number of causal claims about how the world works with basically no empirical evidence. He only really considers the USSR. But the past century of social democracy in Europe and elsewhere seems to largely disprove his major claims about “intervening” in the economy leading to either disastrous economic results (a standard claim of the right) or tyranny (Hayek’s specific claim).


Mises wants to say that the only options are either pure planning or pure markets. But this is far too simplistic. There are many varieties and in-betweens, which he dismissively labels “interventionists”, i.e. those who want government to “intervene” in the market without taking full control. He suggests all such positions don’t really work and either are mild, and reducible to market capitalism, or totalizing, and reducible to command communism. Again, the nearly century of history since the 1930s challenges his simplistic dichotomy.


His criticism of unions seems almost laughably wrong, since the heyday of the working class was also the time of greatest union power, roughly 1945-1975, in the US and much of Europe. Of course unions weren’t the only cause of widespread prosperity but they were a key part.


Ha-Joon Chang, in his Edible Economics, criticizes the simple and triumphant free market history offered by Von Mises, Hayek, and Friedman. “The best example of myth in economics is the distorted historiography that tells us that Britain and then the US became the world’s economic hegemons because of their free-trade, free-market policies—when they were the countries that most aggressively used protectionism in order to develop their national industries.”


This historical critique from Chang is powerful—we see this simple free trade, free market story about the success of the UK and the USA in the works of Von Mises, Hayek, and Friedman, though it is far from reality. Chang goes so far as to argue that the United States, which happens to be the richest country in history, is also historically the most protectionist.


The USSR and Nazi Germany

When Von Mises criticizes those who, in the 1930s, defended the USSR and its suppression of dissident speech, I agree strongly. It is sickening to see people like Harold Laski or the Webb’s defend the silencing of critical speech and thought under Stalin. There can be no defense of this. Although Von Mises is also cherry-picking his sources, ignoring leftists in the US, Europe, and elsewhere who criticized Soviet authoritarianism. Recently rereading essays by the great Russian anarchist Peter Kropotkin reminded me that he powerfully condemned Soviet dictatorship while defending an alternative vision of anti-authoritarian worker power.


Still, Von Mises’ critique of Soviet authoritarianism in the 1920s and 1930s is well-taken, as is his criticism of communist parties around the world blindly following the Soviet line from the 1920s-1940s.  His critique of Stalin and post WW2 Soviet expansion is also justified but he almost seems to sympathize with Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan’s nationalist claims for expansion. At the very least he suggests that their desires for expansion were more justified/grounded in reality than the Soviets. Which is horseshit. I have no sympathy for Soviet aggression, like Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, or their post-World War Two push for a greater sphere of influence, but to suggest that it was equal to, let alone worse than, the axis powers is utter nonsense. At no point did the Soviet military try to conquer the World and initiate a World War that killed 70 million humans. As monstrous as Stalin was, the Soviets fought against the axis powers and millions of their soldiers died battling the Nazis, a sacrifice Von Mises does his best to disparage, suggesting it was negligible to the victory of the allied powers.


The constant suggestions that Nazi Germany was “socialist” are hard to take seriously. Nathan Robinson tackles this dumb argument in detail in his Responding to the Right.


One problem with Von Mises—he is not a historian or a political scientist and much of the empirical claims and arguments he offers are not well-grounded in evidence and haven’t aged especially well. He is nonetheless right to critique Stalin’s tyranny and the embarrassing defenses of Soviet oppression offered by some Western intellectuals.


Although these thinkers, especially Mises and Hayek, can be powerful critics of the USSR (and to their credit they criticized Nazi Germany, unlike many others on the right), they see all injustices in the USSR as the inevitable consequences of communism, perhaps even its essence. But of course in their works they completely ignore the colonization of the Western hemisphere, the Atlantic slave trade, the 19th century conquest of Africa, and other injustices bound up in the modern development of capitalism and liberalism. Are these wrongs merely incidental to Western practices and ideas? Do they have nothing to do with capitalist modernity and liberal individualism? To treat these historic injustices as unrelated to the ideas Mises and Hayek champion seems about as honest as the most blatant apologists for Stalin.


Voters and Consumers

Turning to the issue of voting, Von Mises shows some elitism: “In choosing between various political parties and programs for the commonwealth’s social and economic organization most people are uninformed and groping in the dark. The average voter lacks the insight to distinguish between policies suitable to attain the ends he is aiming at and those unsuitable. He is at a loss to examine the long chains of aprioristic reasoning which constitute the philosophy of a comprehensive social program. He may at best form some opinion about the short-run effects of the policies concerned. He is helpless in dealing with the long-run effects.” (132).


He sounds like elitist philosopher Jason Brennan, who seems to think you need a social science PhD to vote but that consumers when they buy are, in contrast, fully competent and informed. 


He also speaks of the right to vote as if it naturally followed from and emerged with capitalism. This isn’t really true. As more recent history has shown, capitalism and democracy don’t always go together. Second, it didn’t happen naturally, it happened through mass struggle generally driven by left-wing political movements.


Contra his perspective on voting, here is Von Mises on consumer competence:

“But in buying a commodity or abstaining from its purchase there is nothing else involved than the consumer’s longing for the best possible satisfaction of his instantaneous wishes. The consumer does not—like the voter in political voting—choose between different means whose effects appear only later. He chooses between things which immediately provide satisfaction. His decision is final.” (132-133).


Aside from Gerald Mackie’s research that shows consumers are not especially knowledgable or competent, it is as if Von Mises has never heard of externalities. No transactions are final. There are the environmental effects of production and supply chains, pollution by users of the end product, the concentration of money (and thus power) in the hands of owners, etc.

And of course most people don’t know where, how, or under what conditions the products they buy are produced or distributed. Are the jobs good, the materials sustainable, the animals treated well, etc? People care about these things, as evidenced in polling, election outcomes, laws, the work of NGOs, etc. But they don’t factor into consumer capitalism.


The final chapter “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth” is engaging and by far the best essay in the collection. Written in a more academic manner, it deals with debates regarding information and the challenges a fully planned economy would face in generating and sharing information regarding scarcity, abundance, need, and so on. Von Mises and those on his side of the debate at the very least correctly anticipate many of the challenges the USSR would face with its five year plans. It is interesting reading these debates nearly a century later. In many respects I think Von Mises is basically correct. But the solution to these problems, I would argue, is not his beloved neoliberal capitalism but rather democratic socialism, à la Bernie Sanders. Such a system would combine markets, greater worker control of firms, and universal social programs, all in the context of a richly democratic polity.

March 3, 2023

Why Nikola Jokić Should Not Win a Third Straight MVP

A recent straw poll among NBA awards voters found that around 70% said that they would vote for Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić if the MVP vote were held today. With three quarters of the season in the books, it is safe to say that Jokić is the current MVP favorite. As the title of this post indicates, I do not think he should win a third straight MVP award. Why?

Let me get this out of the way right now. I am a big Nikola Jokić fan. He is a phenomenal player, easily one of the best in the league. He probably is, as some have already argued, the best passing big man in league history. If I were able to vote on the NBA end-of-season awards, I would have voted for him to win MVP in 2021, when he won his first. Last year, when Jokić won his second award, I would have voted for Joel Embiid over him. But I, and most actual voters, seemed to agree that it was a three way race between Jokić, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 2021-2022 Nuggets (i.e. last year’s team), riddled with injuries, managed to win 48 games and make the playoffs entirely on the back of his consistent, hard-earned brilliance. It was a really impressive season.


Put simply, he has the potential to be one of the greatest players ever.


The wonderful Zach Lowe says that people should not vote against Jokić simply because they don’t feel like giving him a third straight MVP award. I agree. So here are a few reasons for giving the award to someone else this year. Let’s call them history, legacy, and standards.


History: Only three players in NBA history have won three MVPs in a row. They are Bill Russell (1960-63), Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68), and Larry Bird (1983-86). These three are widely regarded as three of the ten best players ever. Are we really ready to elevate Jokić into this group? MVP voters may feign ignorance but history matters. Winning three MVP awards in a row is virtually unprecedented. A number of the best players ever did not achieve it—Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Jerry West, and Oscar Robertson all failed, just to name a few. Several of those players did not even win three MVP awards over the course of their careers, let alone three in a row. For those interested, only eight players in league history have won three or more MVP awards. To win three MVP awards, especially in a row, is to scale the top of the NBA legacy mountain.


So, on to my second point: legacy. To vote for Jokić to win a third straight MVP is not to act in a vacuum. It is to vote for the most prestigious regular season award in a league with a long history. To repeat my question from above, are we ready to elevate Jokić into this rarified air in 2023? No, we should not be. Not yet. One year ago, for the NBA’s 75th anniversary, a list of the 75 greatest players ever was “selected by a blue-ribbon panel of current and former NBA players, coaches, general managers and team and league executives, WNBA legends and sportswriters and broadcasters.” These voters did not put Jokić in the top 75 a year ago. This might sound like a snub but it made sense, for as of last year he had not yet accomplished enough. 


Again, because I am a fan, I think he will. Who knows how high he will stand in the pantheon when he retires? I’m bullish on Jokić. His Nuggets should be considered one of the main title favorites this year. The fact that some of those making the strongest case for Jokić’s third straight MVP are not betting on the Nuggets to win the title calls into question how seriously they take their own arguments. In what world do you have a team led by an all-time great player, a surrounding roster deep with talent that is well-coached, with the number one seed in the West, and they aren’t one of the favorites?


Some commentators have pointed to the 1996-1997 season, when Michael Jordan was clearly the best player in the league but Karl Malone won the MVP award, seemingly out of voter fatigue. In hindsight most consider this a mistake. People didn’t vote for Jordan because they were tired of giving him the award every year? So what, he was the best player! (No offense to Karl Malone). But as I will elaborate below, that season is not analogous to this. Jordan was the undisputed best player in the NBA for the 1996, 1997, and 1998 seasons. He should have won the MVP award all three years. This is not the same. As brilliant as Jokić is, he is not the undisputed best player in the world, and that matters. Time to consider what it means to be the best in more detail.


So finally, standards. What does it mean to be the most valuable player? What criteria do we use to assess this? Is the MVP the best player in the league? The best player on the best team? The most valuable? It’s not clear exactly what it means or how to differentiate between these potential options. What we can say about the standards for MVP voting is that they have evolved over time but are still not singular, obvious, or objective. There is no single statistic we can use to resolve these questions and there is plenty of room for taste and judgment.


Let’s look further into standards for MVP. Nikola Jokić is a remarkable, truly great basketball player. He is also not unequivocally the best player in the league. Many players, coaches, and analysts would pick Giannis if asked to pick one player to lead their team into the playoffs. This suggests that, when push comes to shove, many consider Giannis to be the best player in the NBA. And Giannis is definitely MVP eligible—he hasn’t missed many games. His team, the Milwaukee Bucks, also has roughly the same record as the Nuggets. Why exactly is it a runaway for Jokić?


Now let’s have a look at the stats, both conventional and advanced. The case is not a slam dunk for anyone. Among the best players, four seem like good candidates. (Kevin Durant and Steph Curry have missed too many games and Luka Dončić, an early favorite, has not been quite good enough. No one else should be in the conversation). So it’s Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum.


As of March 2nd, through 55 games, Jokić is averaging 24.6 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game. Impressive stuff. If he maintains these averages he will join Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season. In addition, he is shooting a very impressive 63.3% from the field, 39.8% from three, and 82.2% from the line. According to both regular and effective field goal percentages this is the best shooting season of his career.


But the conventional numbers of the others are impressive as well. Embiid is averaging 33.0 points per game, 10.4 rebounds per game, and 4.1 assists per game, though he has played seven fewer games than Jokić. The numbers for Giannis are just as bonkers: 31.3 points per game, 12.0 rebounds per game, and 5.4 assists, though he also has played five fewer games than Jokić. Finally, Tatum is averaging 30.3 points per game, 8.7 rebounds per game, and 4.7 assists per game. Tatum has also played 59 games, four more than Jokić. None of these conventional stats stand out as obviously superior to the others and all are, in part, contingent on the positions each of them plays, the quality of their teammates, and the style of their teams.


Also, if we think in terms of MVP as the best player on the best team, the four teams they play for are virtually tied in the standings as of March 2nd. The Bucks at 45-17, the Celtics at 45-18, the 76ers at 40-21, and out West the Nuggets at 44-19. Again, no real room to differentiate.


But it is 2023 and we have one more thing to consider, a bevy of advanced stats, or as Zach Lowe playfully terms them, the “vorps, worps, and schnorps.” Once again, however, the advanced stats are not perfect, nor do they uniformly paint Jokić as the best in the league. For instance, ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus currently has Jayson Tatum at number one, Embiid at number two, Lebron at number three, and Jokić at number four. This is a powerful catch-all stat but it is not perfect—Giannis currently ranks eleventh and Durant an absurd 38th. 


It is true that Jokić leads in three major advanced stats—VORP (value over replacement player), BPM (box plus/minus), and WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes). And this is where many think his case is at its strongest. But note two things—the advanced stats are also very impressive for the other contenders and, more importantly, advanced stats are notoriously bad at capturing defensive value. For instance, Giannis is generally recognized as the best defender in this group (he and Jaren Jackson Jr are considered the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year this season) and yet his defensive box plus minus, which feeds into the broader BPM score, is much lower than Jokić. No offense to Jokić but he is not in Giannis’ league as a defender. Indeed, he might be the weakest defender of the four top candidates. 


Given that so much of the case for Jokić winning his third straight MVP award rests on advanced stats that inflate his defensive value, I will say with moderate confidence that Jokić is roughly tied with several other players for the title of best in the league. 


So should he win a third straight MVP?  In a word, no. Given that this league has a history, and awards are not isolated but add to and accumulate across resumes, winning a third straight MVP is too much, too soon. Not only would it prematurely coronate him as one of the greatest to ever play but it would also imply, in retrospect, that he was far and away the best player of his time, which is simply not true. In a league with so much talent, with players like Giannis, Embiid, and Tatum, not to mention the returning-from-injury Durant and Curry, it does not make sense to give anyone three MVP awards in a row.


Having said that, I will now sit back and hopefully watch Jokić put together what he has not yet fully achieved—one of the greatest careers of all time.


*stats and history from basketball-reference.com and NBA.com.